Potato crop projected slightly above average in 2025: Hochstein

Posted on September 11, 2025 by Taber Times

By Trevor Busch
Taber Times
editor@tabertimes.com

As regional potato growers enter their fields for the harvest season, everything appears to be going well so far in 2025.

“So far it looks good. We started first part of August on the chip crop. It’s running well, right out of field crops there, and the processors will start up after the long weekend for the new crop, fries, all that,” said Terence Hochstein, executive director of the Potato Growers of Alberta. “The processors will start the new crop right after the September long and we’ll just roll.”

While understandably reluctant to pull out his crystal ball, Hochstein does believe yields could be slightly above average in 2025. 

“It’ll be average, maybe slightly above. But I never give a yield estimate until I get it in the bin. Because whatever I tell you I guarantee you will be wrong – guaranteed. Now, the way things are going, on average, maybe a slightly above average crop, but it’s way too soon to tell. Ask me at Thanksgiving, and I’ll give you a number for sure.”

In terms of processing and contracts for next year, completing harvest is the main obstacle at present.

“It’ll be status quo. We’ll get the crop harvested, and then we will move forward with crop 2026 contracts,” said Hochstein, who went on to comment on the $600 million McCain plant expansion at Chin still currently underway. “They’re pretty close, and ultimately, that’s their baby. It’s like any new plant, you’re going to have some hiccups, but it’s moving forward.”

Canada’s potato industry is subject to the varying fortunes of international markets and consumption, says Hochstein, with the domestic footprint less powerful in this context. 

“That plant (McCain) still has more capacity once they get it up and running, but it depends on the market, it depends on what you and I do as consumers, right? That’ll be the biggest thing. It’s strictly driven by consumer demand around the world. Actually, global demand will dictate what this industry does next year. That’s just how tied we are to that global market. It’s not a local market, it’s not an Alberta market, it’s not a North America market, it’s a global market. And our entire industry runs with that.”

In terms of impacts from U.S. tariffs, Hochstein reports the potato industry has so far been shielded from major impacts through the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), but other industries like canola have been bearing the brunt of a “monkey-in-the-middle” scenario as giants U.S. and China battle it out over EV protectionism.

“Our industry is food. Food is exempt right now under CUSMA. If it remains as such, my understanding is that whole deal is subject to review in 2026. Well, we’ll see what falls out, but right now we’re going to continue to make food, produce food, and go from there. It’s always in the back of your mind, sure, but we’re not at the table. That’s not what we do. We’re a primary producer so it’s out of our control. I mean, the canola industry saw that firsthand with the Chinese tariffs, right? It tipped that thing upside down really quick. There hasn’t been a word since then – it’s just been surprisingly quiet.”

While Ottawa appears singularly focused on protecting Ontario’s auto industry – including implementing Canada’s own tariff wall against Chinese EVs which in turn have prompted heavy canola tariffs in retaliation – Western Canada’s farmers appear to have been left out in the cold. 

“It’s all about votes,” said Hochstein. “It’s not about people, it’s not about food.”

As twinning work intensifies on Highway 3 in the lead up to a projected 2026 opening of the 46 kilometres between Taber and Burdett, potato farmers are positive about the development easing harvest congestion in the future. For now, though, congestion on the remaining single lane is going to be problematic.

“One hundred per cent, we absolutely look forward to seeing that thing open. I drive it almost daily. And that’s scary, especially this time of year. And it’s going to get probably worse yet before it gets better this fall, because they’re doing a bunch of tie-ins,” said Hochstein. They’re doing their job every single day, but we’re about to have trucks on there every two minutes, between us and the beet industry, silage. That’s a corridor. There’s a pile of trucks that go up and down that highway every single day, and all the people that work with Lamb-Weston and other various places. It’s a zoo.”

For irrigation water access and storage heading into the fall and winter, Hochstein is positive about what he has been seeing in terms of Southern Alberta reservoirs.

“From our side of it, I think we’re quite happy. We were very blessed with that July rain. Without that, it had been pretty dire going into the fall. It allowed the growers to cut back on what they needed to irrigate, and it allowed a little bit of water to accumulate in their reservoirs. So they look pretty good right now, with the exception of the Oldman, that one doesn’t look good.”

Crops have sustained some damage in certain areas, but overall potatoes have escaped largely unscathed so far in 2025.

“There was a few growing areas that did have some hail damage, but we got off pretty lucky. I mean, we could be like what Cardston County experienced, and that storm that went through Brooks. We did have some damage out of that Brooks storm, but nothing compared to those guys that were right underneath it,” said Hochstein.

Growers are focused on getting the crop out of the ground. 

“Just looking forward to the next six weeks and getting harvest done. Usually we try and be done by October 5. After that, you’re playing poker with Mother Nature.”