Tariff threats fuelling trade uncertainty for potato industry

Posted on March 13, 2025 by Taber Times

By Trevor Busch
Taber Times
editor@tabertimes.com

For an industry that primarily exports eighty-five per cent of its product annually, Alberta potato producers are worried about the threat of a 25 per cent U.S. tariff – but the jury is still out on how negative that influence could be.

“I don’t know what it’s going to look like. I don’t think anybody knows, other than the gentleman that keeps saying he’s going to,” said Potato Growers of Alberta executive director Terence Hochstein.“Could it have a potential impact on us? Absolutely it could, but we don’t know.”

Hochstein has been unimpressed with Canada’s trade negotiation tactics so far.

“I mean, the biggest fear right now is the fear of the unknown. Say nothing – I mean, we just keep (engaging) and that’s the frustrating part. The Canadian government, we just keep showing our cards. Play poker, but if you’re gonna throw them all down on the table, well, it makes the game pretty easy.”

In 2024, roughly 75,500 acres of potatoes were planted in Alberta, with 57,000 of that in southern Alberta.

“We’re going to be down this year. Don’t know what that number is yet, just because of the economic situation, the unknown of what’s happening now,” said Hochstein. “North America was long last year in potatoes, so there was an excess pile. So we’re just going to need less this year – the demand is a little bit less.”

The 2024 crop turned out to be excellent, says Hochstein, despite early fears of severe drought that were later dispelled when the sky opened up.

“Surprisingly, considering we were under allocation, very well. Those May, June rains made a huge difference, it allowed the crop to do what it should have done, and a long fall. We were very late in the fall, so that allowed the crop to bulk up longer. So it turned out very, very well. Better than expected.”

There were few concerns regarding hail or disease.

“Last year’s crop turned out very well. There were very little hail in the area, no disease pressure. So overall, we had a really good crop last year – a little bit smaller. The profile was smaller. It just had a tough time getting going when it was cool and wet in May and June, and then July heat didn’t help it at all. But overall, it was a really good crop with smaller profile,” said Hochstein.

Contracts and marketing are under external pressure, says Hochstein.

“This year, very slow going. Have nothing at this point in time settled in ongoing discussions. Eventually we’ll get there. It’s just the uncertainty right now in the world and in North America, with the governments on both sides of the border and tariffs, and all of that.”

The ongoing $600 million expansion of the McCain plant at Chin is still on schedule, but there have been a few issues impacting the $222 million NewCold storage development in Coaldale, according to Hochstein. 

“It’s (McCain) still scheduled to come online late spring, early summer. Same with the freezer (NewCold) in Coaldale, it’s a little bit delayed. I think everybody knows that, but it’s not alarming.”

The McCain expansion will be an agri-food game changer not just for southern Alberta, but the whole province.

“That McCain expansion is going to add additional acres to southern Alberta. Don’t know how much it will be yet – that’s yet to be determined. But it’s going to be a big addition to southern Alberta, and a big addition to the whole province as well. Not only just the process growers here in southern Alberta, but our seed industry as well. The seeds have to come from somewhere, so it allows our seed industry to expand and grow as well,” said Hochstein.

Ongoing plans to expand Chin Reservoir will mean good news for potato producers, but for other ag products as well.

“As the irrigation expands in southern Alberta, it gives an opportunity for the potato industry, amongst many other specialty crops, to expand if the need is there, right? The need is there, but it’s not just all for spuds. It’s for everything,” said Hochstein.

As a trade war heats up between Canada and the U.S., impacts will likely be inevitable for a primarily export based industry.

“85 per cent is exported out of this province. The majority of it into the U.S., some of it to the Pacific,” said Hochstein. “85 per cent of what we produce here gets exported. It’s huge – and that’s just in the fry industry. We’ve got the three chip plants here in Alberta as well. There’s not enough of us to eat that many potato chips. There’s just not enough people in Alberta.”

Water concerns, as usual, are playing a factor with prospects for the upcoming season, but Hochstein is still optimistic.

“We’re watching to see how white the rocks get like everybody else. The reservoirs are in better shape than they were last year, but we’re far from having enough water yet. Our snow months are yet to come, March, April, May, but it is a concern. We’re aware of it.”