Conservative Party of Canada leadership review later this month

The Conservative Party trails the Liberals in the polls by just under four per cent. Mr. Poilievre trails Mr. Carney in the national leadership polls by 21 per cent. Mr. Poilievre is, clearly, a liability – the Party much less so. Mr. Poilievre lost badly in the April 2025 election in Ottawa-Carleton riding, and that loss tells much more about his and his party’s electability nationally than does his later by-election win in Battle River-Crowfoot riding north of Medicine Hat.

Conservative delegates later this month have two choices – one is, for them, unsettling, and the other is worse. The unsettling choice, which might turn out to be good for the Party, is to remove Mr. Poilievre as leader, hold a convention and elect a new leader. This would minimize the likelihood of more defections to the Liberals. It would give the Conservative Party a potential chance to govern in the next election. Short term pain for long term gain?

The worse choice is to affirm Mr. Poilievre as leader. The majority of Canadians view his approach to politics as acidic, aggressive and antagonistic – rubbing too many people the wrong way. They can not visualize him as a prime minister. There are Conservative MPs who hold the same view and they are waiting until after the leadership review. If Mr. Poilievre stays as leader, those Conservative MPs will defect to the Liberals, they will give the Liberals a majority, and their former party will be stuck with an unelectable leader for three years. 

Which will be the choice? Will it be longer-term potential opportunity, or, short-term loyalty to a regionally popular captain with whom they will go down with the ship? My money is on the latter.

     Gregory R. Côté, Irvine